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Variance is essential to any card game. Games in TCG Pocket would otherwise become too streamlined and boring given its small deck sizes, potent card draw, and reliable Energy supplies. This is why coin flips are so prevalent: they are simple for players of any age to understand and add that crucial amount of uncertainty to how a given game will play out.
If you learn to think of coin-flipping cards in terms of averages, like anything outside of your direct control in a trading card game, you will gain a significant edge. To that end, let’s take a closer look at the types of coin flip effects in Pocket.
Bonus Damage
These are attacks that deal a base number of damage (including zero), but if you flip heads, get additional damage. In the long term, you can expect these kinds of attacks to deal exactly halfway between their high and low values. The new Ponyta and Rapidash from Mythical Island are great examples.
They may look weak at first, but think of it like this: the halfway point between Ponyta’s 10 and 40 damage is 25 (difference of 30, so half is 15). Since most Basic Pokemon that evolve can only ever deal 20 damage, including Genetic Apex’s Ponyta, this new one is an upgrade! You can expect it to deal 50 damage over two turns (a head and a tail is the most likely result), getting KOs on other weak Basics that a 20 damage Ponyta never could.
Let’s apply this idea to Mythical Island Rapidash: while 40 damage for 2 energy is only half as efficient as Genetic Apex Rapidash, the potential for 100 damage means it evens out to 70 damage. This is right in line with other solid stage 1 Pokemon like Golduck, Sandslash, and Electrode, with the bonus chance of getting KOs even sooner.
For a more competitive example, look no further than Exeggutor ex. The average of 40 and 80 is 60, meaning it can expect to clear out most Stage 1 Pokemon in only two hits. It’s about the most terrifying thing decks relying on frailer, aggressive Pokemon can face.
Turn Skipping
This archetype takes many forms, whether inflicting Sleep or Paralysis, preventing damage to the user ("Dig"), or disallowing the Defending Pokemon from attacking ("Tail Whip"). The common thread is they severely limit your opponent’s options, often buying you a whole additional turn.
Mythical Island’s Dedenne has gotten some attention for the Pikachu ex deck for this reason; while it won’t be directly winning any fights, it’s a low investment way to possibly give you some time to correct a less-than-ideal draw or inflict just enough damage for a follow-up Pokemon to KO. Since the Defending Pokemon won’t be moving half the time, you can think of Pokemon like Dedenne as having 1.5x the HP and damage output!
This gets less true as the game develops and more powerful attacks come online, but it can help you reconcile odd-looking details like Dugtrio’s measly 70 HP. If you’re a deck brewer, keep an eye out for these effects. An extra turn and some free damage can make a world of difference against even top tier decks in this fast-paced game.
“Sum” Effects
These have you flip a certain number of coins and get something for each heads. Usually it’s damage, but Moltres ex is notable for doing it with Fire Energy. To get the average in these cases, you take the middle point between the lowest and highest possible results. Celebi ex has been getting so much attention because with three or four Energy doubled by Serperior’s Jungle Totem ability, it’s averaging 150 or 200 damage! Charizard ex is dressing in green for the holidays, apparently. This principle also explains why Marowak ex hasn’t been enough for Fighting to see substantial competitive results: its Bonemerang averages 80 damage, which is pretty underwhelming compared to the consistent Pikachu ex’s and explosive and zero-retreat Starmie ex’s 90.
“All or Nothing” Effects
It’s finally time to talk about the Misty in the room. I use ‘all or nothing’ to refer to flipping a coin until you get tails. These are pretty balanced from an objective view, since they’re 50% to do nothing and won’t always matter in the 50% of uses where they do work, but they’re often worth playing just for the occasional game where they win on the spot. Mythical Island’s Eevee is a perfect new example of this: a reliable 20 damage is unlikely to make a difference anyway, but a small chance to wound exs and OHKO Basics with 40 damage or more is exceptional value for an evolving Basic.
The key to success is low investment: Lickitung is an obviously terrible card, but throwing out a Misty or putting an Energy on an Eevee you’re building up to evolve anyway is a small cost with high potential reward.
If you want to see the power of pragmatic coin flipping in practice, check out this pet deck of mine. WIth so many high-potential cards at once, the odds of something going very right are quite good. It’s great for those one-to-three-diamond solo missions, and if you aren’t feeling lucky, it’s easy to swap Frosmoth for Golduck.
Like any element of variance, coin flips can be frustrating and take the game out of your hands, but they can also turn dire situations around and create memorable or hilarious games. It’s not about winning every game; it’s about winning more games than not.